Movies: Oscars: Elbowing out Ash Wednesday and the beginning of Lent, the Oscar cult celebrates its week

Roger Friedman reports in his Fox 411 email newsletter (Feb19,27):

Oscar Week Begins:
All Hail Helen and ForestAt last, we are at the start of Oscar week. It’s a good thing, too. Dreamgirls needs about a day and a half to reach $100 million. The snubbed musical came “this close” over the weekend to the magic number, but fell short about $750,000.

But Oscar week 2007, if there is any justice (and usually there isn’t) in Hollywood, should belong to Martin Scorsese. After near misses with The Aviator and Gangs of New York, America’s finest director looks certain to pick up Best Director this Sunday night and maybe even Best Picture. I can only say maybe. Scorsese fans have been disappointed too many times.

What is certain about Sunday night? This much: Helen Mirren, Forest Whitaker, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson.

Queen Helen is so certain that Dame Judi Dench, whose performance in Notes on a Scandal is incendiary, is skipping the show to have knee surgery. She’s not being a sore loser, but simply practical in a Dame Judi way. She’s got to get back on the London stage. And she already has an Oscar (1999, Shakespeare in Love).

What’s uncertain: Is Peter O'Toole going to come back to Hollywood just to watch Whitaker win? O’Toole had a grand time at the nominees’ luncheon and then went home to England. Making the long trip back does seem pointless if he doesn't think he'll win, but O’Toole’s presence should enliven things.

And what about the spoilers? Little Miss Sunshine, a dark-horse film that was birthed at Sundance, could upset everything with a Best Picture win. Based on its Screen Actors Guild award for Best Cast — as well as producers and writers’ guild nods — Sunshine could throw a dark shadow across Scorsese’s The Departed. Stranger things have happened.

Meanwhile, the real drama of the weekend may wind up with the Independent Spirit Awards on Saturday. After a few seasons of paralleling the Oscar nominations, this year the Spirits have chosen more of an independent path.

Best Feature should be a dog fight between Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson. Best Male Lead, I hope, will go to Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson.

As for Best Female Lead? The real fun would be if Catherine O'Hara gets it for For Your Consideration. Talk about making a catty statement to the Academy Awards!

Mr Friedman's judgment is always at the top for me, but I dare say the darkhorse has its own merits. So I'm divided on what to look forward to on that one matter.